Managing director of tobacco, beverage and convenience store research at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, Bonnie Herzog, calculated the deceleration rates at approximately 2 percent to 2.5 percent for 2016, and at 3.5 percent for 2017. “It’s an industry in secular declines,” she said during her presentation at the expo.
Referring to Phillip Morris International (PMI) and British American Tobacco (BAT), Tobacco Talk respondents pointed out that “neither of the Big Two [tobacco companies] seem interested in rocking the boat at this time”, adding that the tobacco manufacturers are “trying to grab business” as cigarette sales remain on the decline.
Vaping sector seems more stable
As the debate turned to vaping, it was pointed out that this industry is expanding from just electronic cigarettes, to manufacturing heat-not-burn products and other reduced risk products (RRPs).
Reliable positive predictions
When taking in consideration all the challenges that the vaping industry has been facing, the above positive forecasts undoubtedly bring relief and hope. Executive Director of Smokefree Pennsylvania, Bill Godshall commented on Herzog’s predictions on ECF forum, saying that up to now, he has always found her predictions to be quite accurate and consistent.
