Ongoing bi-monthly since 2016, the German Smoking Behaviour Survey (DEBRA), revealed that smoking among teenagers in Germany is still the rise, greatly outpacing the use of vaping products. Currently, 14.9% of 14 to 17-year-olds smoke, compared to just 2.3% who vape. Moreover, the nation has actually experienced an increase in smoking rates across all age groups over the past eight years.
Clearing the Air highlighted that the reason for this could lie in the fact that unlike some other countries, where vaping is increasingly used and encouraged as a smoking cessation tool, local health professionals do not commonly recommend vaping as a method to quit smoking. For example, in the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) has promoted vaping for smoking cessation, contributing to a significant decline in smoking rates from 24.1% in 2010 to 12.5% as per recent surveys
About 30% of all Germans are smokers
- Teenagers (14-17 years old): Smoking rates have risen from 12.1% in 2016 to 14.9% in 2024, while vaping rates have remained steady at 2.3%.
- Young Adults (18-24 years old): Smoking rates have increased from 35.3% in 2016 to 37.6% in 2024, alongside a slight increase in vaping from 3.5% to 4.2%.
- Adults (25 and older): Smoking rates have jumped from 27.9% in 2016 to 34.4% in 2024, while vaping has decreased from 1.7% to 1.4%.
Ultimately the combined data indicated that an average of 30% of the total German population is currently smoking, but this was not the only concerning figure. The survey also revealed a sharp decline in the number of smokers attempting to quit, from 26.9% of smokers having made at least one serious attempt to quit in 2016, compared to just 8.1% in 2024.
Local groups ignore the smoking issue, and focus their efforts against vaping
Meanwhile, despite evidence indicating that flavoured vapes actually help smokers transition away from traditional cigarettes, anti-vaping groups in Germany are still advocating for a ban on vape flavours. Anti-smoking group Stop Blowing Smoke criticized these efforts, stating that such advocacy groups have ignored the smoking issue and are pushing for policies detrimental to adults seeking to quit smoking.
In line with this, a 2021 bill which extended Germany’s tobacco tax to vaping products had sparked concerns about the consequences it would have on local smoking rates. At the time, the World Vapers’s Alliance (WVA) had highlighted that virtually all vapers in Germany were ex-smokers, and such a price increase on safer alternatives would push many back to smoking.
In line with this argument, a recent study investigating whether the rise in e-cigarette use among US adults correlated with a decline in traditional smoking rates, found that vaping has contributed to reduced smoking. This was particularly evident in groups with the highest e-cigarette usage.
The research team used non-linear models to project smoking prevalence trends from the pre-vaping era, examining various cut-off years from the introduction to the widespread availability of e-cigarettes. Subsequently they compared these projections with actual smoking rates to identify any discrepancies, which were then analyzed in relation to e-cigarette use prevalence each year to assess any statistical associations.
More data indicating that vaping decreases smoking
The findings revealed that smoking prevalence in the e-cigarette era was significantly lower than what was predicted based on pre-e-cigarette trends. This decline in smoking was more pronounced as vaping increased, especially among younger adults aged 18-34. This led to the conclusion that there was a significant population-level association between the increase in vaping, and an increased decline in smoking prevalence over the past decade.
Supporting these findings, a recent CoEHAR (Center of Excellence for the Acceleration of Harm Reduction) study reported that in the US, youth vaping has decreased by more than 60% after peaking in 2019. More significant is the fact that the popularity of vaping coincided with the near elimination of tobacco smoking among the same age group. Similar patterns of increased vaping rates and decreasing smoking rates have been witnessed in other countries such as Canada, England, New Zealand, and Germany, highlighting the global significance of these findings.
Germany: A Higher Vape Tax Will Have Dire Repercussions on Public Health
