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How Will the New Trump Administration Impact U.S. Tobacco Policy: Experts Weigh In

While on the one hand things may look promising, possible relaxed regulations on nicotine products could leave nicotine policy vulnerable to harsh controls by future administrations.

Diane Caruana

December 4, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), pending congressional confirmation. Given that his views on vaping and nicotine remain unknown, Kennedy’s potential impact on the nicotine market and tobacco harm reduction (THR) policies is uncertain, adding uncertainty to future THR policy directions. As head of HHS, Kennedy would be overseeing the FDA, which ultimately regulates vaping, nicotine pouches, and other nicotine and tobacco products via the Center for Tobacco Products (CTP). The CTP has become renowned for the stringent and often cumbersome regulatory processes set on tobacco products, drawing a lot of criticsm.

Barnaby Page, the editorial director of ECigIntelligence, the renowned data analysis agency for the tobacco-alternatives industry, believes that the involvement of figures like Kennedy, who favours significant reform of health agencies, could introduce unexpected changes with collateral impacts on nicotine regulation.

What does Trump’s first round as President tell us?

In general, a broader trend toward deregulation is anticipated, driven by Trump’s general antipathy toward bureaucracy and the federal civil service.

Meanwhile, Trump has emphasized the administration’s commitment to public health, targeting harmful substances like chemicals, pollutants, and food additives as contributors to the nation’s health crisis. However, he has also highlighted his positive stance on vaping, underlining his 2019 efforts to preserve flavoured vaping for adults while raising the legal age to 21 to protect minors. During his campaign, Trump pledged to “save vaping” and criticized the Biden administration’s stricter regulatory approach, rightly highlighting that it threatens small businesses.

During his first term, Trump had also proposed shifting tobacco regulation from the FDA to a dedicated agency within the HHS aiming to streamline oversight and reduce regulatory challenges for the industry. With his re-election, this idea may resurface. To this effect, argued Page, under another Trump administration, the regulatory landscape for tobacco and nicotine products in the U.S. is poised for potential shifts, though specific changes targeting novel nicotine products are unlikely in the short term.

In general, a broader trend toward deregulation is anticipated, driven by Trump’s general antipathy toward bureaucracy and the federal civil service. While this could ease industry pressures, public health advocates worry it might weaken protections, particularly for youth and vulnerable populations. Politicization of key agencies like the FDA could lead to streamlined processes and relaxed standards for nicotine products. However, this shift could backfire, as future administrations could use this control to impose stricter regulations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may also witness changes, even though their direct influence on tobacco regulation is limited.

Meanwhile, Trump’s likely focus on tariffs, particularly targeting China, could disrupt supply chains for e-cigarette components. This might benefit domestic manufacturers but could increase costs and limit product availability. Simultaneously, state and local governments may counterbalance federal deregulation with stricter controls, maintaining robust tobacco control efforts.

His loathing of bureaucracy will likely lead to the dismantling of stifling frameworks

In his blog “Bringing the Flamethrower of Reform to FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products,” tobacco harm reduction expert Clive Bates presented a detailed critique of the FDA’s CTP for its handling of tobacco and nicotine regulation. Calling it both costly and inefficient, Bates argues that the CTP’s approach stifles innovation, disproportionately favours big companies, and ignores public health advancements by obstructing access to lower-risk nicotine products, such as e-cigarettes.

In line with Trump’s arguments, he rightly retiterates that the US regulatory system, discourages smaller companies with potentially beneficial products, leading to an oligopolistic market that favours traditional cigarettes and fuels an illicit vape market. Meanwhile, Bates seems positive about Trump’s appointments of high-profile entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new advisory body called the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE). This entity, though not an official government agency, is expected to work closely with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the White House division responsible for streamlining federal operations and optimizing budgetary efficiency.

Musk and Ramaswamy will reportedly offer strategic recommendations to the OMB aimed at modernizing and improving efficiency across various federal departments. This initiative suggests a commitment to re-evaluating longstanding bureaucratic practices and potentially reshaping regulatory approaches. Given their shared backgrounds in technology, innovation, and market disruption, both appointees bring a mindset focused on agility, cost-efficiency, and consumer-centric thinking—qualities often at odds with traditional government structures.

Bates is hopeful that this development holds significant implications, particularly for the CTP which oversees the costly Premarket Tobacco Application (PMTA) requirements, drawing complaints from public health experts and industry leaders alike. Critics argue that these regulations stifle innovation in reduced-risk nicotine products, limit consumer options, and inadvertently promote black-market sales.

With Musk and Ramaswamy now positioned to influence federal efficiency initiatives, there is a strong possibility for meaningful reform within the CTP’s regulatory framework. By advocating for streamlined processes and a more risk-proportionate approach to tobacco and nicotine regulation, DOGE could push for reforms that enhance both consumer safety and market accessibility. For those invested in tobacco harm reduction, this advisory appointment could mark a turning point toward a more balanced and transparent regulatory landscape.